Tampa Housing Market: What the Data Means for Your Next Move

Data as of July 2026

Most Tampa headlines quote one median and move on. That single number is where readers go wrong, because a house and a condo in this metro are moving in opposite directions right now. This page reads the Tampa Bay data the way a numbers-literate friend would: what the split actually is, why the cost of owning repriced the condo market, and what it means for your money.

Two scope notes before the numbers. First, “Tampa” here means the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando counties) unless a figure says otherwise. We anchor examples in the City of Tampa and Hillsborough County, and treat Pinellas County (St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and the beaches) as a labeled second lens, because the two counties are behaving like different markets. Second, we report single-family and condo separately wherever the sources let us, because the blended median describes no actual buyer.

The market scorecard

Tampa market scorecard, May and June 2026 market data; mortgage rate as of July 9, 2026

Median sale price

▲ up over the stated period, favors sellers: $385,000

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA, May 2026 , up 1.3% year over year

The all-types blend ticked up 1.3%, but single-family is flat and condos are falling; the blend hides both.

Months of supply

▲ up over the stated period, favors buyers: about 5.4 months

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA, late 2025

About 5.4 months metro-wide, into buyer-leaning territory.

Median days on market

▲ up over the stated period, favors buyers: 68 to 78 days

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA, January 2026

Roughly ten weeks to sell; buyers have time to negotiate.

Listings with a price cut

▲ up over the stated period, favors buyers: 48.2%

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA, April 2026

Nearly half of listings have cut price, among the highest shares in the nation.

Homeowners insurance premium, single-family

▼ down over the stated period, favors buyers: $3,748 per year

Florida (statewide filed average), September 2025 , easing after the 2022 tort reforms; 38 of 88 insurers filed cuts for 2026

Tampa's signature cost, but premiums are finally easing after the 2022 reforms.

Months of supply, condo-townhouse

▲ up over the stated period, favors buyers: 8.8 months

Florida, December 2025 , up over 50% year over year through spring 2025

Condo supply is nearly double single-family: a materially deeper buyer's market.

A colored triangle shows whether the change favors buyers: green favors buyers, red favors sellers. A gray dot marks a metric that is neutral for buyers (its direction is in the subtitle). Direction and color are descriptive of each metric's own stated period, not a forecast. Sources are listed in the source registry at the end of the page.

Is Tampa a buyer’s or seller’s market right now?

Tampa leans to buyers as of mid-2026, and the condo segment leans further. Metro supply is about 5.4 months (late 2025), homes take roughly 68 to 78 days to sell (metro, January 2026), about 48% of listings have taken a price cut (metro, April 2026), and inventory is down 11.2% year over year (metro, May 2026) after a run-up earlier in the cycle. Statewide, condos carry 8.8 months of supply against 4.6 for single-family (December 2025), so the condo market sits deeper into buyer’s territory than the blended reading shows.

FinExplained Market Balance Score (beta)

Buyer's market leaning to buyers, further still for condos

Direction basis: Supply, days on market, and a near-50% price-cut share all read buyer-favorable, and the condo segment (8.8 months of supply vs 4.6 for single-family) is deeper into buyer's territory than the blended reading shows.

Beta: this score has not yet been backtested against historical market data, and the bands may be recalibrated. Read it alongside the metrics below, not instead of them.

Input	Reading	Normalized (0-100)	Weight applied
Months of supply	5.4 months	40	30%
Days on market	73 days	39	20%
Sale-to-list ratio	95.5%	37	20%
Share of listings with a price cut	48.2%	20	15%
Year-over-year inventory change	-11.2%	64	15%

Months of supply: Tampa MSA, all types, late 2025 (Redfin via Homebuying Institute).

Days on market: the midpoint of the 68-to-78-day MSA range, January 2026 (Redfin/Houzeo).

Sale-to-list ratio: Tampa, January 2026 (Houzeo); Florida read 96.3% in May 2026 (Redfin).

Price-cut share: Tampa MSA, April 2026 (Redfin), among the highest in the nation.

Year-over-year inventory change: Tampa MSA, May 2026, down 11.2% (Homes.com). Inventory had been up about 14.8% in late 2025, then reversed as sellers delisted; this score uses the most recent labeled figure.

Segment note: the condo segment scores materially more buyer-favorable than single-family. Statewide condo months of supply (8.8) is nearly double single-family (4.6), so a condo-only score would sit further into buyer's territory than this all-types reading.

How this score works

Each input is normalized onto a 0-100 scale where higher means more seller-favorable: months of supply maps 0 months to 100 and 9 or more to 0; days on market maps 0 days to 100 and 120 or more to 0; sale-to-list maps 90 percent to 0 and 105 percent to 100; price-cut share maps 0 percent to 100 and 60 percent or more to 0; year-over-year inventory change maps a 40 percent rise to 0 and a 40 percent fall to 100. The design weights are months of supply 30 percent, days on market 20 percent, sale-to-list 20 percent, price-cut share 15 percent, and inventory change 15 percent; when an input is unavailable its weight is redistributed proportionally. Bands: below 40 reads as a buyer's market, 40 to 60 balanced, above 60 a seller's market. We show the band rather than a decimal because the inputs do not support decimal precision. The score is in beta and has not yet been backtested against historical market conditions; read it alongside the underlying metrics, never instead of them.

What changed this month

This is the first edition of this dashboard, so the baseline is the story. The moves already visible in the sourced data:

• The 30-year fixed averaged 6.49% in the July 9, 2026 Freddie Mac survey (national figure), down from a year earlier.
• The blended metro median held near $385,000 in May 2026, up 1.3% year over year (Homes.com), while the single-family median was flat near $405,000 and the condo median was down about 15%: a split market, not a single trend.
• About 48.2% of active listings carried at least one price cut in April 2026 (metro, Redfin), among the highest shares in the nation.
• Active inventory was down 11.2% year over year in May 2026 (metro, Homes.com) after being up about 14.8% in late 2025, as sellers delisted.

Future editions will track each of these against this baseline.

Why are Tampa condos falling while houses hold?

Because the cost of owning a condo repriced the asset, not because demand collapsed. This is the single most important thing to understand about the Tampa market, so it gets its own three-part section: the price split, the insurance repricing, and the reserve-mandate regime.

The price split

Single-family homes have held roughly flat while the condo median corrected. Florida’s single-family median finished 2025 at $413,990 (down 1.4% year over year), and the Tampa metro single-family median was near $405,000 in May 2026 (flat, Homes.com). The condo picture is different: the Tampa metro condo median was about $210,000 by mid-2025, down about 15% year over year and about 25% from its September 2023 peak near $275,000 (Homes.com via Business Observer). Statewide, older buildings have been hit hardest.

A late-2025 uptick in condo sales, and a reported Tampa condo-purchase jump above 15% in May 2026, were compositional: newly completed luxury towers in the urban cores selling, not a recovery in older-building values. Read a rising condo sales count as new supply clearing, not as prices firming.

The insurance repricing

Insurance is the new mortgage rate in Florida. The payment shock that used to live in the interest rate now lives in the escrow line, and it is a big reason condos repriced: a condo association’s master policy, passed through as dues, sits on top of a unit owner’s own coverage. Estimates for a single-family Tampa premium run wide by coverage and carrier, from about $2,057 a year at the light end to $5,935 for full $300,000 dwelling coverage. The Florida statewide filed average is about $3,748 a year (September 2025), and Tampa runs near it.

There is real relief underneath the level. After the 2022 and 2023 tort reforms curbed the litigation that drove premiums up, rates flattened by late 2025: the statewide average barely moved, 38 of 88 insurers filed cuts, and Citizens, the state insurer of last resort, recommended reductions for nearly half its personal-lines customers. Citizens itself shrank dramatically as private carriers re-entered.

Flood insurance is a separate line and a Tampa-specific one. The statewide NFIP average is about $1,363 a year, but under Risk Rating 2.0 the full-risk figure is projected to rise sharply on coastal parcels (Pinellas from about $1,537 toward $3,257, Hillsborough from about $1,132 toward $2,549), with increases capped at 18% a year for existing primary-residence policyholders. Community Rating System discounts help: unincorporated Pinellas holds a Class 2 rating (40% discount in the special flood hazard area), and the City of Tampa is Class 5 (25%). About 38% of City of Tampa properties face severe flood risk over 30 years (First Street via Redfin). If your home is in a special flood hazard area with a federally backed mortgage, flood coverage is required at closing, and that premium inflates escrow and can bust a debt-to-income ratio. That is the escrow-shock mechanism through which insurance repriced Tampa affordability.

The reserve-mandate regime (HB 913, current law)

After the 2021 Surfside collapse, Florida required older condo buildings to inspect and fully fund structural reserves, which forced special assessments that run into five and six figures per unit. The current law is HB 913 (CS/CS/HB 913), signed June 23, 2025 and effective July 1, 2025, which adjusted the earlier rules. Under HB 913, as summarized by the Florida Senate: milestone inspections apply to condo and co-op buildings of three or more habitable stories at 30 years of age (25 within three miles of the coast); the Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) deadline was extended to December 31, 2025; the component threshold that triggers required reserves rose from $10,000 to $25,000; associations gained funding flexibility (special assessments, lines of credit, or a pause of up to two years after a milestone inspection to prioritize repairs); and Citizens may not issue or renew a condo policy unless the association complies with the milestone and SIRS requirements.

HB 913 provided relief and flexibility, but it did not eliminate the core requirement: for buildings of three or more habitable stories, structural reserves still cannot be waived long-term. Two financing effects follow. Special assessments have run as high as about $132,000 per unit in cited cases. And Fannie Mae’s confidential ineligibility list has grown to about 1,438 Florida buildings (March 2025, the largest of any state; a separate HUD-published list showed about 2,810 Florida condo communities, a different dataset), with Pinellas County at 238 communities (August 2025). Because Fannie and Freddie back roughly 70% of conforming mortgages, a unit in an ineligible building often needs cash or non-conforming financing, which functions like a hidden second interest rate. The practical takeaway for a condo buyer is a diligence checklist, covered in the buyer section below.

What does the monthly payment actually look like?

For the worked example we use the single-family figure, $405,000 (Tampa metro, May 2026), not the blended $385,000 median, because the blend mixes a flat house market with a falling condo market and describes neither. The City of Tampa median runs higher at about $443,000 (three months ending May 2026, Redfin); we show it as labeled context, not as the example.

On the $405,000 example with 20% down, principal and interest at the 6.49% July 2026 average run about $2,046 a month. Add the property tax a new buyer actually pays, about 1.3% of purchase price effective in Hillsborough with the homestead exemption filed (about $439 a month), and hazard insurance at the $3,750-a-year engine figure (about $313 a month). That is about $2,797 a month of principal, interest, taxes, and insurance, before maintenance. All of these figures are computed by our tested calculator engine from the stated assumptions, not copied from a listing site. Run your own numbers in the mortgage calculator.

One Tampa-specific line to keep in view: flood insurance. If the home sits in a flood zone, add the NFIP statewide average of about $114 a month on top, which the rent-vs-own chart below shows as a separate labeled bar.

What income do you need to buy in Tampa?

By our math, about $119,872 a year for the $405,000 single-family example with 20% down. That is the gross income where the $2,797 monthly PITI above equals 28% of income (the front-end half of the 28/36 rule). The median household income is about $75,475 (City of Tampa, 2024 ACS, used as the metro proxy), so the gap is roughly $44,397 a year, and price-to-income runs near 5.4 times.

Test your own income, debts, and down payment in the home affordability calculator and the how much can I borrow calculator, and check your ratios with the DTI calculator.

Cash to close is the other gate. On the $405,000 example, engine-computed, with Florida buyer closing costs assumed at 2% to 5% of price:

Below 20% down, add PMI on top of these payments; the sources for this page do not publish a Tampa PMI average, so we leave it unquantified rather than guess. Itemize your own line items in the buyer closing cost calculator.

Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tampa right now?

Month to month, renting wins clearly. The median asking rent was about $2,195 in July 2026 (Tampa, all rental types, Zillow), down about 1.9% year over year. Owning the $405,000 single-family example costs about $3,135 a month with 20% down once you add 1% annual maintenance to PITI at the new-buyer tax rate, or about $3,390 with 10% down before PMI. That is a monthly gap of roughly $940 to $1,195 in renting’s favor. If the home is in a flood zone, the NFIP flood premium pushes owning to about $3,248 a month at 20% down, widening the gap to about $1,053.

Two honest caveats on that comparison. The $2,195 rent is an all-types median, mostly apartments; single-family rents run higher, near $2,600 (Hillsborough and Pinellas, March 2026), so a like-for-like house-versus-house gap is smaller than the chart’s apartment-anchored one. And owners build equity that renters do not. Our engine-computed Tampa rent vs buy playbook runs that full wealth comparison, where insurance is the decision variable and the breakeven horizon is measured in years, not months. Treat the popular five-to-seven-year rule of thumb as a claim to test, and run your own inputs in the rent vs buy calculator, which loads a Tampa preset you can edit.

What is the difference between the Hillsborough and Pinellas markets?

They are two markets wearing one metro’s name. Hillsborough (Tampa) single-family prices are roughly flat year over year, around $390,000 to $415,000 depending on scope. Pinellas (St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and the beaches) average sale prices fell 5.5% to 12.25% year over year, dragged by the 2024 hurricane damage on the barrier islands.

How did Hurricanes Helene and Milton affect Tampa Bay housing?

They split the market by flood exposure. Helene (September 26, 2024) and Milton (October 9, 2024) damaged about 40,910 homes in Pinellas County (28,350 from Helene, 12,560 from Milton, observed damage counts, WFLA). The lasting housing effect is a two-tier market: intact homes hold their value, while flooded homes now sell at roughly 60% to 70% of pre-storm value, sometimes at land value. For substantially damaged homes, the FEMA 50% rule applies: if repairs reach or exceed 50% of the pre-flood market value, the home must be brought up to current elevation and flood codes, which can mean elevating or tearing down. The storms also drove home that inland, non-flood-zone homes flooded too, which raised flood-insurance awareness across the metro. Read those damage figures as observed fact for Pinellas; the forward-looking risk (sea level, future storms) is a risk, not a forecast.

Is there finally enough inventory, and what about the supply split?

Yes, and the split is the story. Metro supply reached about 5.4 months (late 2025), inside the buyer-leaning range. But the single-family and condo segments diverge sharply: statewide, single-family carried 4.6 months of supply against 8.8 for condo-townhouse (December 2025). Condos are firmly a buyer’s market; houses are closer to balanced.

One inventory nuance to state precisely, because the sources look like they conflict and do not. Active inventory was up about 14.8% year over year in late 2025, then down 11.2% year over year by May 2026 (metro, Homes.com). Both are true at different months: inventory rose through 2024 into early 2025, then fell year over year in spring 2026 as sellers delisted, a de-listing surge. When you see an inventory number for Tampa, check the month.

How much competition will you face as a buyer?

Less than the flat blended median suggests. About 48.2% of active listings had taken at least one price cut in April 2026 (metro, Redfin), among the highest shares in the nation. Yet homes still closed near list, about 95.5% of asking in Tampa (January 2026) and 96.3% across Florida (May 2026). Those numbers tell one coherent story: sellers concede before the close, not at it. A listing that starts too high takes its haircut through visible price cuts, and by closing day the remaining gap to list is small.

Which Tampa Bay submarkets fit your budget?

The submarket table is where this market gets personal. The research supplies directional readings by area rather than precise per-neighborhood medians, so we present it that way and label it as directional.

How healthy is the Tampa economy behind this market?

Cooling, with a thinning demand tailwind. Metro unemployment was about 4.7% in April 2026, up 1.3 points year over year (BLS via USAFacts), as job growth stalled. Major employers include MacDill Air Force Base, Tampa General Hospital, the University of South Florida, BayCare, and Port Tampa Bay.

The bigger caveat is migration. Florida net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025, a 93% drop over three years (US Census Vintage 2025 via Axios), which dropped the state to eighth nationally. The Tampa Bay region still added about 497,000 residents from 2020 to 2025, but the marginal demand that lifted prices in the boom is much thinner now. Migration, not price, is the leading risk to watch.

On the rental side, a supply wave is the story: more than 12,500 apartment units delivered in 2024 with about 7,559 more projected in 2026, pushing multifamily vacancy to a record near 10.7% (metro, March 2026) and apartment rents down modestly. Single-family rents held up, near $2,600 and up about 4% year over year, because single-family supply is not expanding.

What do property taxes and the ballot measure add?

Property tax is the quiet half of Tampa affordability, and it is why this page runs its math at new-buyer rates. Florida’s Save Our Homes cap resets a home’s taxable value to its market price at purchase, so a new buyer’s first bill is materially higher than a long-held owner’s capped bill. We use about 1.3% of purchase price effective for Hillsborough with the homestead exemption filed, the working midpoint of the research’s 1.1% to 1.42% band. Hillsborough added one school mill in July 2025, and newer suburbs add CDD or special-district assessments (roughly $1,000 to $2,500 a year) billed separately.

One change is pending, not enacted. A constitutional amendment, HJR 1F, is on the November 3, 2026 ballot and needs 60% to pass. If it passes, it would exempt the first $250,000 of homestead value from non-school taxes effective January 1, 2027. As of mid-2026 it is a ballot measure with an unsettled outcome, so treat it as a potential change, not a fact. The property tax calculator shows what any rate or assessment scenario does to a monthly payment.

What should buyers do with this market?

A framework, not marching orders: this is an educational read of the data, not personalized advice.

• Treat the roughly 48% price-cut share and 5.4 months of supply (metro) as permission to negotiate. Reasonable offers get answered now.
• Separate the house decision from the condo decision. Single-family is closer to balanced; condos are a deeper buyer’s market with real building-specific risk.
• Budget the full carrying cost, not just the payment. On the example home that is about $2,797 of PITI plus maintenance, and more if the home is in a flood zone. Get insurance and flood quotes before you make an offer, because the escrow line, not the rate, is what busts Tampa budgets.
• Ask for seller-paid rate buydowns and closing credits, not just price cuts. On these numbers, payment relief often beats an equivalent sticker discount.

If you are considering a condo, run this diligence checklist before you offer, because the building, not the unit, carries the risk:

• The milestone inspection report and its findings, if the building is 30 years old or older (25 near the coast).
• The Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) and whether reserves are actually funded.
• Any special assessment already levied or being discussed, and its per-unit amount.
• The association’s master-policy insurance cost and how much of the budget it consumes.
• Fannie Mae eligibility, which decides whether you can get a conforming mortgage or need cash.

What should sellers do?

• Price to the last 90 days of comps, not to a 2022 or 2023 anchor. Buyers can see the cut history on every listing, and about 48% of listings are already cutting.
• Know which market you are in. A well-kept single-family home in Hillsborough is closer to balanced; an older condo or a flood-exposed Pinellas home faces a deeper buyer’s market.
• Expect roughly 68 to 78 days on market (metro) and plan your carrying costs for it.
• If you own a condo, get ahead of the buyer’s diligence: have the milestone report, SIRS, reserve status, and insurance documents ready, because a financing failure kills more Tampa condo deals than price does. Before you list, run the seller net proceeds calculator so the number you plan around is the one you keep.

What should renters do?

• Negotiate now. Record multifamily vacancy near 10.7% (metro, March 2026) and modestly falling apartment rents mean concessions are common; over a third of complexes offer them.
• Bank the gap. Renting the median apartment runs roughly $940 to $1,195 a month cheaper than owning the single-family example; saved consistently, that is real down-payment progress.
• Watch the split. Single-family rents held up near $2,600 while apartment rents fell, so if you need a house rather than an apartment, your leverage is smaller.
• If buying tempts you, test it honestly in the rent vs buy calculator rather than reacting to a single month of headlines.

What should current homeowners do?

• Refinance math is marginal at 6.49% (July 9, 2026) unless you bought near the 2023 to 2024 rate peak. Find your break-even in the refinance calculator.
• Watch the carrying costs, not the Zestimate. Insurance is the line that moved Tampa budgets; shop it yearly, get a wind-mitigation inspection (it can cut 15% to 30% off the premium), and file your homestead exemption. The property tax calculator shows what a rate or assessment change does to your monthly cost.
• If you own an older condo, treat the milestone and SIRS calendar like a bond maturity: a coming inspection or reserve deadline can trigger an assessment that changes what your unit is worth.
• Tapping equity? Compare routes in the HELOC calculator before assuming a cash-out refinance at today’s rates.

What should investors consider?

• Underwrite today’s soft apartment rents and record vacancy, not 2022 rents. Single-family rentals have held up better than multifamily because single-family supply is not expanding.
• Model the real carrying costs: at least the 1.3% new-buyer effective tax rate, higher without the homestead exemption that an investment property does not get, plus insurance and, where applicable, flood. Run cap rate and cash flow in the rental property ROI calculator and stress the vacancy and insurance assumptions.
• An older condo can look cheap on price and expensive on total cost once assessments, master-policy insurance, and Fannie ineligibility are priced in. Renting out a condo someone else insures can be dominated by the HO-6, master-policy, and assessment stack.

Three scenarios for the next 12 months

No single price forecast here, stated as fact or otherwise. Instead, three scenarios with the signals that would confirm or break each one. Assumptions are explicit; probabilities are not offered because rate policy, insurance filings, and migration will decide it.

Buyer-favorable. Rates ease, insurance keeps flattening but condo assessments and financing friction persist, and thin migration keeps demand soft. Confirmation: months of supply rising past 6 and the condo months-of-supply staying near or above 9. Invalidation: price-cut share falling well below 40% while inventory tightens.

Base case. Rates hold near 6.5%, single-family stays roughly flat, and condos keep grinding lower in older buildings while new towers sell. Confirmation: the single-family median flat to low single digits and the condo median still soft. This is the split-market continuation.

Seller-favorable. Rates fall meaningfully, insurance and reserve costs stabilize enough to restore condo financing, and the property-tax amendment passes and lifts demand into 2027. Confirmation: days on market falling and the condo months-of-supply dropping toward single-family. Invalidation: price-cut share staying near 48%.

What to watch next month

• The single-family and condo medians separately, not the blend; the split is the signal.
• Months of supply against the 5.4 metro reading, and the condo figure against the 8.8 statewide reading.
• The price-cut share against the 48.2% April baseline; falling cuts would signal returning seller strength before the median moves.
• Insurance rate filings and Citizens depopulation, the carrying-cost story.
• Florida migration data, the leading demand risk, and the November property-tax vote.

Run your own numbers

Every dollar figure on this page came from our tested calculator engine at stated assumptions, and each of these tools lets you swap in your own: rent vs buy (with an editable Tampa preset), mortgage, home affordability, how much can I borrow, buyer closing costs, seller net proceeds, refinance, DTI, property tax, and rental property ROI. For the deeper Tampa wealth comparison, read the Tampa rent vs buy playbook and the ten-city rent vs buy comparison. Compare Tampa with our Austin housing market study, and for how metro costs shape long-term plans, the FIRE number by metro study.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Tampa housing market crashing?

No, it is cooling, not crashing. Single-family prices are roughly flat near $405,000 (metro, May 2026) while condos have fallen about 12% to 25% depending on the segment. The metro is a buyer’s market with about 5.4 months of supply, which is a normalization, not a collapse.

Why are Tampa condos so cheap and falling?

Because the cost of owning a condo repriced the asset. Post-Surfside reserve mandates, special assessments, master-policy insurance, and Fannie Mae financing restrictions have hit older buildings, and statewide condo supply (8.8 months) is nearly double single-family (4.6). It is a regulatory and insurance story, not a demand story.

How much is home insurance in Tampa?

Roughly $2,400 to $5,900 a year for a single-family home depending on coverage and mitigation; the Florida statewide filed average is about $3,748 a year. Condo unit HO-6 coverage runs about $737 to $1,779 a year on top of association dues. Premiums flattened in 2025 after the 2022 reforms.

Do I need flood insurance in Tampa?

If your home is in a FEMA special flood hazard area with a federally backed mortgage, yes. The Florida NFIP average is about $1,363 a year, though Pinellas and Hillsborough coastal parcels run higher under Risk Rating 2.0, and Community Rating System discounts of 25% to 40% apply in participating communities.

Is Tampa a buyer’s or seller’s market in 2026?

It leans to buyers. Metro supply is about 5.4 months, roughly 48% of listings have cut price (April 2026), and homes take 68 to 78 days to sell (January 2026). Our beta Market Balance Score reads buyer’s market on those inputs, and the condo segment scores more buyer-favorable still.

What is the average home price in Tampa?

About $385,000 metro-wide for all types (May 2026), but that blend misleads. Single-family runs about $405,000 (flat year over year) and condos about $210,000 (down about 15%). The City of Tampa median is higher at about $443,000.

Should I buy a condo in Florida right now?

Only after reviewing the specific building. Check its milestone inspection, its Structural Integrity Reserve Study, whether reserves are funded, any special assessment, the master-policy insurance cost, and Fannie Mae eligibility. A non-compliant older building carries assessment and financing risk that a low price does not offset.

What are HOA fees like in Tampa?

Single-family and CDD communities run modest. Condo association dues are far higher and rose 17.2% year over year in 2024 (the steepest of the 43 metros Redfin tracks), driven by insurance and reserve requirements. A high-rise master policy alone can add hundreds of dollars per unit per month.

Will Florida eliminate property taxes?

Not as of mid-2026. A constitutional amendment, HJR 1F, is on the November 3, 2026 ballot and needs 60% to pass. If it passes, it would exempt the first $250,000 of homestead value from non-school taxes effective January 1, 2027. Treat it as a pending measure, not a decided outcome.

How did Hurricanes Helene and Milton affect Tampa Bay housing?

They damaged about 40,910 homes in Pinellas County in 2024 and split the market by flood exposure. Intact homes hold value; flooded homes now sell at roughly 60% to 70% of pre-storm value, and the FEMA 50% rule can force elevation or teardown on substantially damaged homes.

What is the difference between the Hillsborough and Pinellas markets?

Hillsborough (Tampa) single-family prices are roughly flat year over year. Pinellas (St. Petersburg, Clearwater, and the beaches) average sale prices fell about 5.5% to 12.25%, dragged by hurricane damage on the barrier islands and heavier condo exposure. They behave like two different markets.

Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tampa right now?

Month to month, renting, by roughly $940 to $1,195 against the $2,195 all-types median asking rent (July 2026), depending on your down payment. Owning builds equity that renting does not, but the monthly gap is real, and single-family rents run higher than the apartment-anchored median.

Are Tampa rents falling?

Apartment rents are down modestly, about 1% to 1.9% year over year, with record multifamily vacancy near 10.7% (metro, March 2026) after a supply wave. Single-family rents held up, near $2,600 and up about 4% year over year, because single-family supply is not expanding.

Methodology

Where the numbers come from. Every market figure on this page is transcribed from a named source with its geography, period, and confidence level in the source registry below, and is never presented without its period. Where sources differ (city vs metro medians, single-family vs condo, one month vs another), we show both and label the scope rather than averaging them.

What we computed ourselves. Monthly payments, PITI, income needed, cash to close, the rent-vs-own gap, and the flood-zone variant are computed by the FinExplained calculator engine (decimal-precise, tested) from the stated assumptions: a $405,000 single-family example, 6.49% 30-year fixed (July 9, 2026), the 1.3% Hillsborough new-buyer effective property tax rate (a purchase resets the taxable basis to market value, so a current owner’s capped bill would understate a buyer’s cost), $3,750 annual hazard insurance (rounded from the $3,748 Florida OIR statewide filed average), an optional $1,363 annual flood premium for the flood-zone variant, and 1% annual maintenance. Golden tests pin each published figure, so a silent change would fail our build.

The Market Balance Score is in beta. Its formula, weights, normalization anchors, and this month’s inputs are fully disclosed on the card above. Tampa carries all five inputs, including the year-over-year inventory change, so no weight renormalization is needed this edition. The score has not yet been backtested against historical Tampa data, which is why it renders as a band with its inputs, never as a headline number.

Charts. Every chart states its geography and period and carries a text description. Where a source supplies a range rather than a single figure (the Pinellas county decline, the days-on-market band), the chart says so or plots the labeled midpoint. Charts whose data series the sources do not supply (a monthly inventory line, a clean third-party income-needed estimate) are omitted or noted rather than fabricated.

Source registry

Every figure used on this page, with value, geography, period, source, and confidence:

Assumptions and limitations

• The worked examples assume a $405,000 single-family home, 20% down unless stated, a 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 1.3% Hillsborough new-buyer effective property tax rate, $3,750 annual hazard insurance, a $1,363 annual flood premium in the flood-zone variant only, and 1% annual maintenance. Change any input and the outputs move; the linked calculators exist for exactly that.
• We use the single-family figure, not the blended $385,000 median, because the blend mixes a flat house market with a falling condo market. The blended and City of Tampa medians appear as labeled context.
• PMI is excluded from the sub-20%-down figures because no sourced Tampa PMI average was available; real payments below 20% down will run higher than shown.
• The property tax figure uses the new-buyer basis (about 1.3% of purchase price), not a current owner’s capped bill, because Save Our Homes resets the taxable value at purchase. Your school district, CDD, and exemptions decide where you land.
• The rent comparison uses an all-types median asking rent ($2,195, mostly apartments); single-family rents run higher (near $2,600), so a house-versus-house gap is smaller than the chart’s.
• Submarket readings are directional, from aggregator and brokerage sources; a build-time MLS pull would firm them up.
• Everything here is educational analysis of market data, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, and not a recommendation to buy, sell, or rent any property.

Data freshness

This edition carries May and June 2026 market data with the July 9, 2026 mortgage rate, was published July 12, 2026, and refreshes monthly: the next update is planned for mid-August 2026, after the June data lands in the Florida Realtors and MLS reports. Notable mortgage-rate moves, an inventory swing past the scenario thresholds above, or the November property-tax vote trigger an off-cycle update. Corrections follow our corrections policy and are logged in the changelog.